PETER VAN ONSELEN: How the most unexpected state in Australia could be Peter Duttons path to victory

Could Victoria be about to deliver Peter Dutton an unexpected election victory, shifting its support back to the Coalition for the first time since John Howard’s 1996 landslide victory against Paul Keating?

State Labor is on the nose, but Victorians won’t get a chance to take out their anger on the state party for more than two more years.

In the meantime Anthony Albanese is hoping to retain a lions share of seats Labor needs to retain in Victoria to hold on to majority government.

At the last federal election, Labor won 24 seats compared to just 11 for the Coalition in Victoria. Liberals then also lost the seat of Aston at a by-election shortly afterwards.

But fast forward more than two years and the cost of living crisis nationally, coupled with the Victorian state Labor government teetering on the verge of bankruptcy, has the Labor brand on the nose in Melbourne and the surrounding regions.

The change of political fortunes could be Dutton’s version of what Western Australia was for the Labor Party at the 2022 federal election.

Anthony Albanese held his campaign launch in the west, riffed off the popularity of state Premier Mark McGowan and took his opportunity to almost double Labor’s share of seats in the west, surpassing the Liberals for the first time since 1998.

Victoria could deliver Peter Dutton (pictured with wife Kirilly)  an unexpected election victory

If Dutton does gain a bounce in Victoria at the next election, it would represent a stunning turnaround from expectations shortly after he took over the Liberal leadership in opposition.

Dutton was seen as political poison in Victoria - an unpopular figure unable to turn around the Liberal Party’s fortunes in a state once described as the ‘jewel in the crown’ of the Liberal Party and the home of its founder, Robert Menzies.

A recent Redbridge poll has three Labor-held seats too close to call (Chisholm, McEwen and Bruce), as well as gifting Aston back to the Liberal Party.

The recent redistribution may also bring Dunkley (on a 2.7 percent margin) into play, and the Labor held seat of Higgins has now been abolished.

At the last federal election, Labor secured a swing of just over 10 percent across WA, flipping the state Labor’s way for the first time in a quarter of a century.

While retaining those pick-ups will be its own difficulty for Labor, if a similar swing happened in Victoria to reverse the partisan political fortunes of the preceding nearly 30 years, Labor would lose as many as 10 seats.

In addition to those already mentioned, seats like Corangamite (7.8 percent), Hawke (7.6 percent), Holt (7.1 percent), Isaacs (9.5 percent) and Gorton (10 percent) could all come into play.

Anthony Albanese (pictured) is hoping to retain a lions share of seats Labor needs to retain in Victoria to hold on to majority government.

Will Dutton seek to launch his campaign in Victoria the same way Albo launched his last one in WA?

Will we see Dutton spending more time in Victoria, campaigning alongside some of his local federal MPs, such as finance shadow Jane Hume, shadow home affairs minister James Paterson and shadow housing minister Michael Sukkar?

All three portfolios are high profile and will play an important role in the next campaign.

In addition to the threats Labor faces from the Coalition in Victoria, a number of its seats are under threat from the Greens. And Liberals will hope to win one or more of the teal-held seats back.

The same Redbridge poll mentioned above has the Liberals ahead narrowly in Goldstein against teal MP Zoe Daniel.

Howard almost managed to reveres the Liberal Party’s poor performances in Victoria at the 2004 election against Labor leader Mark Latham. Labor narrowly held more seats in Victoria after that loss, 19 seats compared to 18 for the Coalition.

At that election, interest rates was the defining issue, just as it may well be this time around, following 12 consecutive rate rises since Labor took power federally.

Latham was typecast as an economic risk - a perception Albo and Treasurer Jim Chalmers are ably matching with their performances so far in government.

When you throw in all the state stink of the Labor Party, it could be a powerful reason for voters to send a message against the incumbent Labor Party, albeit at the federal level instead of state.

At the last federal election, Labor won 24 seats compared to just 11 for the Coalition in Victoria

The fact the state Liberal Party is immersed in problems could also work in Dutton’s advantage. Voters may not feel comfortable protesting against Labor at state level in the years to come unless the state party gets its act together.

Federally, however, Dutton has managed to unite his party in the wake of the 2022 election defeat and there are few signs of disunity ever since.

Albo was proud to tell anyone who would listen that his WA strategy turned the 2022 election campaign on its head, winning seats in the west that few expected Labor to prise off the Liberals.

Without such success, Labor couldn’t have won majority government.

Dutton may be looking to do the same to Labor in Victoria, which would represent a stunning victory for the Liberals in a state they have long failed to win over.