Peter Dutton has made a subtle calculation and it became very obvious for the first time this week, writes PETER VAN ONSELEN
Will the times suit Peter Dutton in his bid to dethrone a first term PM for the first time in nearly 100 years?The Opposition Leader has the Coalition neck-and-neck in the polls with a federal election expected in the next six to seven months.
Will the times suit Peter Dutton in his bid to dethrone a first term PM for the first time in nearly 100 years?
The Opposition Leader has the Coalition neck-and-neck in the polls with a federal election expected in the next six to seven months.
Despite Prime Minister Anthony Albanese enjoying an early honeymoon when he came to power, it has been all downhill for Labor ever since.
The debacle of the Voice referendum campaign put the PM and his government offside with more than 60 percent of the Australian population.
Then Labor began breaking election promises on tax cuts and superannuation, at the same time the Reserve Bank pushed interest rates higher and higher, courtesy of stubbornly high domestic inflation.
The cost of living crisis has weighed heavily on Labors term in office, and Dutton has used the crisis to question the governments economic management credentials.
Now as the crisis in the Middle East takes centre stage, Dutton is again on the front foot, calling out Labors soft response to everything from Hezbollah flag waving protestors to antisemitism on university campuses.
Dutton knows full well that the Coalition enjoys a sizeable advantage over Labor when votes are asked about the credentials of the major parties to handle national security matters.
But the pre-election campaign Dutton is mounting against Albo also confronts the notion of woke politicking head on.
The opposition leader appears happy to frame himself as an advocate for mainstream rejection of modern political correctness as out of control and anathema to the zeitgeist of the moment.
Will he be proven right?
Peter Dutton is leaning into his image as one of the hardmen of Australian politics - rather than trying to be someone that hes not
We saw it this week with Duttons response to a question from an ABC journalist seeking to draw comparisons between the state of Israel and the terrorist organisations of Hamas and Hezbollah.
He took no prisoners.
Early in the Labor governments term Dutton saw his role as two fold: political survival and holding his fractured Coalition together in the wake of Scott Morrisons heavy election defeat.
That was a loss that not only delivered Labor power, but wiped out a new generation of Liberal leadership hopefuls as teals captured more than a handful of once safe Coalition seats.
At that time Dutton was cautious, even seeking to frame himself as less the hard man of the Liberal Party than has always been his reputation.
The brief was to widen his appeal beyond the portfolios hed long occupied.
Duttons reputation was as a leader of the Liberal Partys hard right. His social conservatism on policy matters was matched by his hard edged attitude to national security and defence.
The concern even amongst his supporters has been whether he can appeal electorally.
However, perhaps the times are shifting to suit a politician of Duttons style. Straight talking anti-establishment rhetoric. Calling out the club that Labor in government can sometimes become.
Before the business community turned on Labor because of new policies not flagged at the election on industrial relations, Dutton was prepared to distance himself from the love in between Labor and business on post-material issues.
The Voice to parliament was just such an example, but there were other issues too.
Now that cost of living is firmly impacting peoples lives, Dutton looks to have had his eye on the ball from early on when Albanese was off playing in the sandpit.
That at least is what focus group research for both major parties is revealing.
Dutton (seen at an event linked to the Daniel Morcombe Foundation) has found his personal approval numbers are no longer a drag on the partys vote
Which is why the timing of the election is a difficult issue for Labor. Do they go early to get the election over and done with before perceptions get worse, or do they delay in order to use events and timing to improve Labors political fortunes?
Albo appears to be opting for the latter, hoping for an interest rate cut before the campaign commences (or perhaps even during it).
The PM also hopes that an election defeat for Queensland Labor might help voters take out their frustrations on the political Left before he has to face their wrath.
However polls reveal that the PM has a far lower negative net satisfaction rating amongst Queenslanders than their Labor state premier does.
For Duttons part, his personal approval numbers are no longer a drag on the party vote.
If anything his style of leadership just might give voters cause to shift back to the Coalition after just one term out of power.
Leaders like Dutton tend to either lean in to, or lean away from, who they are.
Dutton is now leaning in, and so far the polls suggest he is being rewarded for it. Its happening right at a time when Australians are questioning what Labor stands for and whether it can be trusted.
Albos beta male personality is a sharp contrast to the alpha male persona of Dutton.
No first term government has lost a re-election attempt since 1931, which was during the Great Depression.
The current economic climate isnt anywhere near that bad, but people are nonetheless doing it tough.
Duttons pathway to victory is narrow, especially given the sideshow of contests against teals in once safe Liberal seats.
Ultimately, outright victory for the Coalition and Dutton might be a bridge too far after just one Labor term.
But if the opposition leader can campaign successfully enough to take away Labors majority, reducing Team Albo to a minority government reliant on Greens support to stay in power, on any measure for a first term opposition leader that would be a successful outing.
And you just never know: perhaps the times will suit Dutton even more than that.
