National Hurricane Center monitoring new threat in the Atlantic: Forecast shows where Nadine could strike

A disturbance thousands of miles away in the Eastern Atlantic has meteorologists nervously asking if they are seeing the successor to Hurricane Milton taking shape.

A slow start to 2024s hurricane season was brutally upended as first Helene and then Milton smashed their way across Florida and the Carolinas, leaving more than 270 dead.

Another is possible before the relative safety of December is reached, and scientists are trying to calculate whether a weather system brewing just a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa will become Hurricane Nadine.

Currently known as Invest 94L it is sitting in the Atlantics hurricane incubator west of the Cape Verde Islands, and starting to approach.

We dont know if this going to be a player just yet, it is way out there and, generally at this time of year we dont look this far out in the Atlantic for development, said Orelon Sidney of the Weather Channel. But, hey, its this year.

Meteorologists including the Weather Channels Orelon Sidney have identified Invest 94L in the eastern Atlantic as a possible successor to Hurricane Milton

Early models show that the infant storm in the Atlantics hurricane nursery could grow into anything between a damp squib and a monstrous Category Four  

The system is forecast to move generally westward to west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, where environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development in the central Tropical Atlantic by the mid to latter part of this week, the National Hurricane Center wrote in its latest update.

Sidney said that forecasters generally look a lot closer to home for development as October arrives.

And a disturbance closer to home is also giving weather watchers cause for concern as it gathers strength in the Caribbean.

Not only are waters very warm in this area -well into the 80s down deep - the ocean heat content in the western Caribbean is at record high levels for any time of the year, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said.

Hurricanes Beryl, Debby and Helene were all influenced by the abnormally warm water in this region so far this season, while Hurricanes Francine and Milton formed and quickly strengthened in a similar environment over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

All of these storms eventually impacted the US.

None of the disturbances are currently projected to hit the US but that could quickly change.

The system is forecast to move generally westward to west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, where environmental conditions could become more favorable for gradual development in the central Tropical Atlantic by the mid to latter part of this week, the National Hurricane Center wrote in its latest update. 

Helene and Milton took to four the number of major hurricanes of category 3 or more to have emerged off the American coast this season, one more than the average of three with more than a month of the season yet to run.

One possibility would take the system westward into Central America and southern Mexico, and the other is, unfortunately, toward Florida, DaSilva said

It is typically very difficult for a tropical system to continue toward the northwest and into Texas this late in the season due to prevailing westerly breezes in that area.

That will be little consolation to the thousands of victims still clearing up after the impact of Helene and Milton.

Scenes from tornado damage associated with Hurricane Milton in several communities in North Fort Myers, Florida

A drone image shows the dome of Tropicana Field which has been torn open due to Hurricane Milton in St. Petersburg, Florida, on October 10, 2024

Tracking forecasts show immense variability in the likely course of the infant storm

The latter, which was registered as a terrifying Category 5 hurricane hours before it made landfall in Florida late Wednesday, did not prove to be the once-in-a-century storm many had feared, but insured losses for the hurricane are estimated to be in the $30billion to $60billion range.

At least 16 people have been confirmed dead since the storm fizzled out into the Atlantic Ocean after smashing through coastal communities and knocking out power to more than three million customers.

The federal response to the latest disaster has become a key issue in the presidential election with former president Donald Trump warning on Sunday that it could prove to be his rivals October surprise.

I think we got a little bit lucky in the sense that it was bad, but it wasnt as bad as they thought. And a lot of governors have done a good job. Trump told Fox News on Sunday. But the response from the White House has been absolutely terrible.

The former president has pushed claims that President Joe Biden and VP Harris arent responding adequately because the worst-affected areas are all red or red-leaning states.

The other issue thats really big, I think, is how badly theyve done with North Carolina, parts of Georgia, when you look at whats happened and Florida, we all see whats happening there, he told Fox host Maria Bartiromo.

President Joe Biden spoke on Sunday following a briefing by federal, state, and local officials in Florida during a tour of areas affected by Hurricane Milton

The remains of a building stand after Hurricane Milton made landfall, in Lakewood Park, near Fort Pierce, in St. Lucie County, Florida, U.S., October 10, 2024

Trump and his allies have claimed that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is only giving $750 to families who need relief, and sparked fear in residents that if they accept aid the government can take ownership of their homes.

The White House has repeatedly said this is disinformation and has called on Trump to correct himself publicly.

While campaigning during a church service at Koinonia Christian Center in Greenville, North Carolina on Sunday, the vice president called out the information Trump is spreading about the storm response.

Sadly, frankly, the motives are quite transparent — to gain some advantage for themselves, to play politics with other peoples heartbreak, she alleged.