Investors are bailing out of Britain and theres an economic crisis brewing in Bonds. Now Business Editor HUGO DUNCAN reveals what it means for YOU.. and how Rachel Reeves is facing her own Liz Truss moment
The surge in UK borrowing costs to above the levels seen after the infamous mini-Budget of 2022 raises a simple question – is Rachel Reeves facing her own Liz Truss moment?It was then, of course, that Labour coined its oft-repeated claim that the Tories ‘crashed the economy’ after a sharp rise in gilt yields pushed mortgage rates higher and wreaked havoc in the pensions industry.
The surge in UK borrowing costs to above the levels seen after the infamous mini-Budget of 2022 raises a simple question – is Rachel Reeves facing her own Liz Truss moment?
It was then, of course, that Labour coined its oft-repeated claim that the Tories ‘crashed the economy’ after a sharp rise in gilt yields pushed mortgage rates higher and wreaked havoc in the pensions industry.
The ‘bond vigilantes’ got their way, many of the tax cuts were reversed, and Ms Truss was removed from high office.
Having vowed to re-establish economic stability, Labour is now facing its own bond market crisis in the wake of its first Budget for 14 years.
Borrowing costs have been steadily rising since Chancellor Reeves floated the idea of fiddling the fiscal rules at the Labour Party conference in September last year.
The ten-year gilt yield – a crucial measure of government borrowing costs that feeds through to mortgage rates and other loans – stood below 3.8 per cent at this point.
Borrowing costs have been steadily rising since Chancellor Rachel Reeves floated the idea of fiddling the fiscal rules at the Labour Party conference in September last year
Yesterday it topped 4.8 per cent for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, having peaked at around 4.5 per cent under Ms Truss. Similarly, the 30-year gilt yield has risen from around 4.35 per cent in September to a 27-year high of 5.38 per cent last night – well above the 5 per cent peak of the Truss era.
So, what is behind the rise in borrowing costs, and what does it mean for us and the Chancellor?
Ms Reeves’ supporters argue that borrowing costs have risen across the West, most notably in the US, as investors weigh the prospect of new tariffs and an extra $6 trillion of US debt under Donald Trump.
There are also concerns that the Bank of England will struggle to cut UK interest rates due to stubbornly high inflation.
But as Mike Riddell at savings and investment giant Fidelity International notes, ‘a worrying development in recent days’ is that borrowing costs have risen more here than in other countries.
At the same time, the pound has fallen sharply against the dollar and the euro.
The very real concern is that investors do not like what they see and are bailing out of Britain. The combination of the weaker pound and rising gilt yields ‘has eerie echoes’ of the Truss era, warns Mr Riddell, adding it ‘could potentially be evidence of a buyer’s strike or capital flight’.
There are differences, of course, between then and now.
The rise in borrowing costs under Ms Reeves has been significant, but more gradual than under Ms Truss.
At the same time, Ms Truss was hamstrung by the crisis in the pensions industry, which had left itself vulnerable by piling into what turned out to be high-risk liability driven investments (LDIs).
And Ms Truss and her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng had ousted the Treasury’s most senior civil servant and sought to bypass the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Liz Truss outside 10 Downing Street when she announced her resignation as Prime Minister
The aim may have been to allow them to deliver a pro-growth Budget, but the outcome was to undermine trust, leaving the bond markets to swoop.
For all the differences, however, the bond vigilantes are circling once again. Misplaced hopes that the political stability brought about by a large Labour majority would usher in a period of economic renewal have evaporated.
What international investors now see is economic stagnation and an explosion in state spending paid for by higher taxes, more borrowing and a ballooning national debt as part of a decisive pivot from productive private enterprise to the bloated public sector.
The Chancellor is now on the brink of breaking the fiscal rules she set herself a little over two months ago.
The £9.9 billion of headroom her first Budget afforded her has disappeared – wiped out by a £10 billion increase in the cost of borrowing and the dramatic slowdown in the economy that was the fastest-growing in the G7 when she took office six months ago.
Unless her luck changes, Ms Reeves will have to act in order to keep the OBR onside when it publishes its latest assessment of the public finances on March 26.
To avoid a breach of her fiscal rules, her choices are stark.
She could either raise taxes again – inflicting further pain on businesses and households grappling with elevated borrowing costs. And, of course, breaking another pledge – having promised she would not come back for more after £40 billion of tax hikes in the Budget.
Or she could cut spending, putting her on a collision course with Cabinet colleagues who face a hit to their departmental budgets, and her union paymasters.
Ms Reeves is quickly learning what happens when the fantasy economics of Opposition collide with the realities of government.
If the situation under Ms Truss was acute – and as such, over very quickly – with Reeves it is chronic. It has every chance of getting worse the longer it goes on.