EXCLUSIVEExperts predict whether Mark Robinsons Black Nazi and Nude Africa scandal will hurt Donald Trump in the 2024 election
The scandal North Carolina over Lt.
The scandal North Carolina over Lt. Gov. Mark Robinsons bizarre past internet activity has dominated headlines in what is a critical state in the 2024 election.
The Republican running for governor was accused of calling himself a Black Nazi on a pornographic forum called Nude Africa.
He has denied the allegations and vowed to sue CNN, the first outlet to publish the lurid allegations.
While Robinson has taken a hit in the polls and could struggle in his gubernatorial race, the question thats lingered is whether his behavior will impact the candidate on top of the ticket, Donald Trump.
Political experts have mixed feelings on whether Robinsons misgiving will hurt the former president, with most saying it wont.
But one pollster told DailyMail.com that one factor could cause a ripple affect in a state the GOP has been victorious in since 2008.
Mark Robinsons name will appear on North Carolinas November ballot no matter what despite calls for him to end his bid after the latest scandal
If voter turnout for Republicans is impacted by their lack of enthusiasm to vote in the gubernatorial race, it could also potentially help flip the state for Democrats in the presidential race.
And pro-Robinson signs are increasingly disappearing from yards across North Carolina.
Republicans are increasingly distancing themselves from their candidate after a CNN report last week alleged Robinson called himself a black Nazi and perv on the pornographic forum Nude Africa.
But the party appears stuck with him since at this point in the race, Robinson would need to choose to drop his bid – and he has said he has no intention of quitting the race.
Elon University Political Science Professor Jason Husser, who is also director of the universitys polling, said that Robinsons scandal likely wont harm Trump in terms of convincing people… to suddenly change their mind about him.
I do think, though, that Robinsons troubles are not helpful to Trump in another way, which is that: Governors campaigns can help turnout. And North Carolina is so tightly divided, turnout is often what can tip an election one way or another, Husser countered.
When you have an electorate that is split so down the middle like North Carolina, if you get an extra 1 percentage points because your governors running next to you has a really good ground game of getting to vote out and motivating people and pulling in all the supporters for local candidates to also align with the governor and align with the presidential candidate, that can make a difference.
Husser says that Robinsons campaign has stalled out those hopes for Trump, but that Josh Stein, the Democrat running in the states gubernatorial race, is doing well.
At least 10 Republican individuals and groups have canceled events with Robinson so far, and several local politicians and lawmakers have deleted images with the candidate from their social media.
Some voters are showing how disenfranchised they feel with Robinson by taking down their yard signs.
Its been about 50/50 of whether the Robinson signs are still in the yards. Some people are leaving and some people are pulling them up, Husser said of the right-leaning community where he lives.
The report from CNN revealing a series of lewd, racist and overall salacious comments made by Robinson are leading to calls for him to drop out.
There was a small window after the report came out where Robinson could have suspended his bid and the NCGOP could have sued to stop ballots from going out with his name on them.
Now, no matter what, Robinsons name will appear on the ballots since they are already shipped out to overseas and out-of-town voters.
Husser explained that there is still a way for the Republican Party in North Carolina to run a different candidate – but it would be a long shot.
Robinson would need to voluntarily end his run for the Governors Mansion, which is already highly unlikely.
Then, the party would need to select a new candidate to replace him.
Thats when the work starts. Husser detailed. The NCGOP would need to spend a lot of money to inform voters that even if they cast their ballots for Robinson in November, it would actually mean their vote would go towards whichever candidate was selected to replace him.
Husser recently released a poll taken pre-porn scandal that put Vice President Kamala Harris 1 percentage point ahead of Trump in North Carolina – 46 percent to 45 percent.
The results represent a statistically insignificant split and are within the Elon University Polls 3.75 percentage point margin of error.
North Carolina, which has 16 Electoral College votes, went red in 2016 and 2020 for Trump.
In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 3.6 percent. The gap narrowed against Joe Biden in 2020 when the former president won by 1.3 percent.
