Californias bluest county swings red for the first time in 40 years as two key demographics turn toward Trump

California, a longtime Democratic stronghold saw a notable shift towards the right in Tuesdays election with even the state’s bluest county, San Francisco County, far from immune to the trend. 

The city registered a 7-point swing in favor of Donald Trump compared to the 2020 election - possibly as part of a broader political realignment within the state.

The swing towards the GOP is only the second time since 1984 that California voters have offered stronger support for a Republican presidential candidate than in the previous cycle. 

And it appears that voters in Asian and less college-educated parts of the city were the two main key demographics that helped move the city a few points to the right. 

California , a longtime Democratic stronghold saw a notable shift towards the right in the election with even the state’s bluest county, San Francisco, far from immune to the trend

And it appears that voters in Asian and less college-educated parts of San Francisco were the two main key demographics that helped move the city a few points to the right

Across the state as a whole major counties including San Diego, Los Angeles, and Fresno saw significant shifts toward Trump.

Fresno, a longtime Democratic stronghold, flipped to Trump for the first time in 20 years. 

While San Francisco managed to hold on to a Democratic majority, a similar pattern emerged. 

Trump’s support in San Francisco county rose from 12.7% in 2020 to 15.3% in this years election. 

The rightward trend led to support for Kamala Harris dropping from 85.3% to 80.8%. 

In many parts of the country Latino voters were behind the push towards Trump while in San Francisco the shift was largely driven largely by Asian voters, reports the San Francisco Chronicle.

The swing toward Trump is even more profound outside of San Francisco particularly in suburban and rural areas of the state

The swing towards the GOP is only the second time since 1984 that California voters have offered stronger support for a Republican presidential candidate than in the previous cycle

Trump supporters are gathered at a Republican Watch Party for south of San Franscisco in San Carlos, California

Data taken a precinct-level data details how neighborhoods with high numbers of Asian residents, particularly in the south and western parts of the city, together with Chinatown, swung the furthest towards the Republicans. 

In the past such areas have been the east progressive in San Francisco and also receptive to messaging from conservatives. 

This year’s results indeed show a more pronounced shift to the right.

A detailed precinct-level analysis shows that that ethnicity was the strongest predictor of voting changes. 

Precincts with higher percentages of Asian voters saw the largest gains for Trump, while predominantly white areas showed little movement.

Income, poverty rates, and the proportion of foreign-born residents were also less significant factors in determining shifts.

Less-educated areas were also likelier to shift to Trump.

Precincts with higher percentages of Asian voters saw the largest gains for Trump, while predominantly white areas showed little movement. Pictured, voters cast their ballots at a polling place inside a residential garage

The swing toward Trump is even more profound outside of San Francisco particularly in suburban and rural areas of the state

Analysis reveals that lower-educated neighborhoods, particularly those with fewer residents holding college degrees, were more likely to swing Republican. 

It also explains why Trump performed well in areas like Visitacion Valley and Bayview-Hunters Point - both heavily Asian, but with less education levels.

Similar shifts were reported in Los Angeles and Queens, New York with results suggesting a broader, nationwide movement among Asian voters, particularly in working-class communities.

The swing toward Trump is even more profound outside of San Francisco particularly in suburban and rural areas of the state.

Analysts are putting the shift in political leanings down to a variety of factors, including economic concerns, dissatisfaction with pandemic-era policies, and cultural issues that resonated with conservative-leaning voters.

While California will likely continue to remain a Democratic stronghold, the results provide some clear guidance over the areas where Democrats need to up their game.

Republicans, meanwhile, may be able to use to data as an opportunity to further long-held Democratic dominance across the Golden State.