If Donald Trump hopes to be the first president since Grover Cleveland to win non-consecutive terms, his campaign must make a host of changes, a prominent political analyst has warned.
Douglas E. Schoen - who has worked for both Bill Clinton and Mike Bloomberg - gave the prognosis in a Saturday opinion piece penned for the Daily Breeze, hours after appearing on Fox News to provide similar insight.
The Democratic strategist said he would still bet on Trump despite the slight edge recently for Harris - a stance he reiterated in the op-ed, with a few caveats.
Above all else, he said, Trump needs to stay focused on the issues at hand, while working harder to link Harris to a languishing administration that just 39 percent of Americans approve of, according to recent polls from Gallup.
If Trump reorients his campaign to focus on issues Harris and Joe Biden have failed to make headway - such as the economy, immigration, crime, and foreign policy - it will call attention to Trumps record, and that of Vice President Harris.
If Donald Trump hopes to be the first president since Grover Cleveland to win non-consecutive terms, his campaign must make a host of changes, a political analyst warned Saturday
Douglas E. Schoen, 71, made the declaration Saturday in an opinion piece penned for the Daily Breeze, hours after appearing on Fox News to provide similar insight
Further, doing so would force Harris to defend the Biden administrations record in key areas, Schoen wrote - citing inflation, a surging cost of living, and historic numbers of illegal migrant crossings specifically.
Given that more than six-in-10 (62 percent) of voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of immigration, and a similar 60 percent disapprove of the administration’s handling of the economy, forcing Harris to defend her record should be the top priority.
References to specific prospective policies, such as plans to accelerate job creation through lower corporate taxes, would put Harris on the defensive, Schoen added - as would a potential extension to the tax cuts Trump already made in 2017, he said.
Schoen proceeded to point out how Trump, who once enjoyed a sizable lead over Joe Biden, now trails Harris in most major polls - with the conservative is down six points in Morning Consults latest survey.
He went on to disclaim that such leads are far from insurmountable, before pointing to state statistics - particularly in swing states - that he said will decide the election.
Schoen cited a RealClearPolitics survey showing Harris with a slight edge in three battleground states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
He also turned to two more aligned with Trump - Arizona and Georgia.
Neither candidate’s lead in any state is greater than 2-points, Schoen, who has worked for both Bill and Hillary Clinton, said of how such a differences sit well within the margin of error.
There, the Democratic strategist said he would still bet on Trump despite slight edge seen recently for Harris - a stance he reiterated in the op-ed, though with a few caveats
This, he added, shows the race is still a toss-up - even after a debate that was undoubtedly a better night for Harris than for Trump.
The former Advisor to President Clinton and NYC Mayor Bloomberg went on to reiterate that even after a one-sided debate, there was no major change in the polls, allowing Trump an opportunity to rectify those wrongs.
The comes when nearly two-thirds of voters feel the country is on the wrong track, he said - pointing to results from a recent New York Times/Siena survey,
The poll, he wrote, found that 52 percent of Americans believe Harris represents more of the same - while 49 percent thought Trump exemplifies a major change.
Keeping this in mind, Schoen detailed how tying Harris to the Biden administration will likely prove effective, and that given that more than 62 percent of voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of immigration - and 60 percent disapprove of his handling of the economy - an attack on Harriss record should Trumps next move,
He then stated how this would be a deviation from the strategy Trump used during the recent debate, which he said the politician spent mostly talking to directly to his already secured fanbase.
That was a mistake in the eyes of Schoen, who said such rhetoric may fire up voters who were already planning to vote for the former president, but it does little to convince others who may remain undecided.
The intense polarization and Trump’s fiercely loyal base mean that he can win by eschewing an issues-based campaign in favor of inflammatory, divisive rhetoric that appeals to a narrow bloc of voters, Schoen went on to concede.
A week earlier, Schoen - who has worked as an advisor for Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and Mike Bloomberg, made an appearance on the network to discuss Trumps debate performance, and how he believed it was not the proverbial nail in the coffin others had indicated
But Trump’s easiest path back to the presidency is through focusing on the issues, forcing Kamala Harris to defend the Biden administration’s record, and by appealing to the moderates in the swing states that will decide this election.
Hours before, he appeared on Fox News to speak more about what to expect from swing states like North Carolina, where Harris has a slight lead.
But if I had to place a wager, Id bet on Donald Trump, he said, citing how the former president closes well and that reluctant Trump voters tend to come out on election day.
So this election is as tight as can be, Schoen told GOP pollster Justin Wallin on Saturdays ‘Cavuto Live.’
And I think Kamala Harris is recognizing that.
A week earlier, he made an appearance on the network to discuss Trumps debate performance, and how he believed it was not the proverbial nail in the coffin others had indicated.
The 2024 presidential election remains 44 days away.