Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer announced her retirement from election polling after her pre-election day results wildly missed the mark in the deep red state.
Selzer had built a reputation as Iowas Polling Queen and the best pollster in politics over decades of conducting the Des Moines Register polls.
The 68-year-old had accurately predicted each of the presidential outcomes going back to 2008, giving her a Nostradamus-like reputation that drew eyeballs to her incorrect 2024 results.
In they final days leading up to the election, her poll for the Register and Mediacom predicted Kamala Harris would win Iowa by +3 percentage points.
Donald Trump went on to trounce the vice president by over +13 points in the Hawkeye State.
Selzer was mercilessly mocked for the uncharacteristic mistake which prompted Trump to label her an enemy.
On Sunday, Selzer revealed she is retiring from the Register to pursue polling for other clients.
Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities, she said.
Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer (pictured) announced her retirement from election polling
Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite.
Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.
Following Trumps landslide victory, Selzer admitted her research was completely wrong and might have even emboldened MAGA nation.
I told more than one news outlet that the findings from this last poll could actually energize and activate Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory, she said. Maybe thats what happened.
She continued an attempt to defend her methodology, which came as a complete shock to voters the weekend prior to the election.
The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth today, she said.
Although the results were within the margin of error, it gave Harris supporters hope that she could flip the state they had previously written off.
The Register survey sent shockwaves through the market – triggering a flood of wagers on Harris to win the U.S. election.
Donald Trump labeled Selzer an enemy for her polling that suggested Harris would win the Hawkeye state by three points
The miscalculation forced Register executive editor Carol Hunter to issue a statement to readers explaining why they published the poll.
The Des Moines Register is closely reviewing the disparity between the results of the final Iowa Poll and the election results, Hunter said in a statement.
Throughout its 81 years, the mission of the Iowa Poll has been to reflect the unvarnished opinions of Iowans, without pressure or interpretation from politicians, media or others.
With rare exceptions, the final Iowa Poll before elections has tracked closely with the actual vote.
Register editors will work closely with pollster J. Ann Selzer to review all methodologies and other factors that may have impacted the difference.
The Iowa Poll has measured opinions of Iowans on everything from farm policy to traffic cameras to the quality of mental health services in the state. We want to ensure it accurately reflects the sentiments of Iowans moving forward.