Ukraines army is registering sky-high rates of desertions as Russian forces continue to grind westward, leaving the nations former foreign minister to acknowledge Kyiv will lose the war if the conflict continues along its current trajectory.
Prosecutors opened up 60,000 cases in the first 10 months of this year against soldiers found to have deserted their posts - almost double as many cases initiated across all of 2022 and 2023 combined, the Financial Times reported.
In an effort to stem the flow, Ukraine has upped its recruitment efforts, setting a bold target of signing up another 160,000 men to support war-weary frontline units in the next three months.
But the conscription drive has also come under fire with episodes of brutal assaults on unregistered men in city streets by masked press-gangers for busification - rounding-up of civilians to be transported to army training centres - becoming all the more frequent.
The shocking rates of desertion were revealed as Vladimir Putins forces move inexorably further into Ukraine, aiming to seize as much territory as possible ahead of Donald Trumps imminent return to the White House with both sides expecting Washington to push for ceasefire talks early next year.
Although their ranks are suffering heavy casualties, the Russian army is advancing at a rate faster than at any other time after the initial days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of London in November.
The bleak circumstances led Dmytro Kuleba to declare that Kyiv will lose the war unless a major reversal of fortunes can be realised.
Kuleba, Ukraines wartime foreign minister until his resignation in September amid a cabinet reshuffle told the FT: Do we today have the means and tools to turn the tables and change the trajectory of how things are happening? No, we dont. And if it continues like this, we will lose the war.
Ukrainian servicemen of the mobile air defence unit fire a machine gun at Russian drones during night patrol on December 2, 2024 in Chernihiv Oblast
A Ukrainian man is pictured above as he is dragged into a vehicle by military recruitment officers
A drone view shows an apartment building hit by a Russian drone strike, amid Russias attack on Ukraine, in Ternopil, Ukraine December 2, 2024
The bleak circumstances led Ukraines former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to declare that Kyiv will lose the war unless a major reversal of fortunes can be realised
Putins troops swept through swathes of Ukraine in early 2022 and were bearing down on Kyiv in a matter of days, but they were held on the outskirts of the capital before being pushed back and retreating further east.
After that, the 1,000 km (620-mile) front line remained largely static save for some minor offensives one way or the other - that is until Ukraine launched a lightning incursion into Russias Kursk region this summer.
Now though, Ukraines valiant defenders are wilting under incessant pressure from Russian troops which have sustained a fearsome rate of artillery fire matched with glide bomb attacks and full-frontal assaults.
Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine, independent Russian news group Agentstvo said in a report last week.
The Russian army captured almost 235 square kilometres (91 square miles) in Ukraine over the past week - a weekly record for 2024 - and had taken roughly 600 square kilometres (232 square miles) in November, the report claimed.
Those figures were largely supported by the US-based Institute for the Study of War, which put the amount of territory gained since November 1 at 574 square kilometres (221 square miles) - an average rate of 22 square kilometres per day.
The war is now entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its most dangerous phase weeks before Trump returns to the Oval Office amid fears he could dramatically reduce aid to Ukraine as he seeks to force a ceasefire deal.
North Korean troops are reported to be bolstering Moscows forces and Kyiv is now using Western-supplied missiles to strike back inside Russia - a development that prompted Putin to unleash a never-before-seen Oreshnik hypersonic missile late last month.
The Russian President also declared last week that Moscow could soon begin to strike decision-making centres in Kyiv if Ukraine continues to hit targets in Russia with US and UK missiles.
The Kremlin chiefs stark warning followed hours after Russian forces pounded Ukraine with dozens of missiles and drones overnight in an attempt to degrade the energy network as a bitter winter approaches.
Thursdays barrage, in which Ukraine downed 79 missiles and 35 drones, left over a million Ukrainians without electricity in freezing cold temperatures.
A serviceman of 24th Mechanised brigade named after King Danylo of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fires a 2s5 Hyacinth-s self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops at a front line
The body of a dead Russian soldier lies on the ground at the frontline between Russian and Ukrainian positions near Klishchiivka, Donetsk Region
An aerial view of Chasiv Yar shows the frontline city in ruins after heavy fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces for over a year, Donetsk Region
Workers fix a thermal power plant damaged by a Russian missile strike, amid Russias attack on Ukraine, at an undisclosed location in Ukraine November 28, 2024
This handout photograph taken and released by the National Police of Ukraine on November 29, 2024 shows burning house following a drone attack at an undisclosed location in Odesa region
In this handout photograph taken and released by the Ukrainian Emergency Service on November 28, 2024, Ukrainian rescuers prepare to load the remains of a Russian X-55 cruise missile onto a truck
The thrust of the Russian advance has been in Ukraines Donetsk region, with Moscows forces pushing towards the town of Pokrovsk and into the town of Kurakhove.
Pokrovsk is widely cited as a key strategic location given that it serves as a vital logistics hub for Ukraines Armed Forces.
Russian war bloggers say that if Russia can pierce the Ukrainian defences around Kurakhove, they will be able to push westwards towards the city of Zaporizhzhia while securing their rear to allow a swing towards Pokrovsk.
Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russias SVR Foreign Intelligence Service, said on Tuesday that Russia held the complete strategic initiative on the battlefield.
He also added that Russia is open to negotiations but stated that the Kremlin would categorically reject any freezing of the current frontline, demanding that Ukraine relinquish areas of the four Ukrainian regions - Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - that the Kremlin has illegally annexed without fully occupying.
The past days saw Russia launch some of the biggest drone attacks of the war so far, cutting power to much of the western region of Ternopil and damaging residential buildings in the Kyiv region.
But for all the fanfare over Putins latest hypersonic missile and the devastation caused by large-scale drone attacks, most analysts argue the main driver preventing Kyivs troops from successfully defending their territory is a lack of ammunition.
Russia has increasingly encircled territory and then pummelled Ukrainian forces with artillery and glide bombs, according to Russian analysts, with the sheer numerical superiority of Moscows artillery batteries and ammunition affording Putins troops a significant advantage.
Russian artillery divisions can be deployed in more locations and can sustain a much higher rate of fire than their Ukrainian counterparts, helping to scupper Kyivs counterattacks while softening up defensive positions.
Firefighters remove debris after Russian missile attack on November 26, 2024 in Sumy, Ukraine
Ukrainian servicemen of the 43 Artillery Brigade fire a 2S7 Pion self-propelled cannon towards Russian positions at a front line in the Donetsk region
Russian servicemen jump off a T-90M Proryv tank during a combat training for assault units in an undisclosed location
A recent report published by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank and Open Source Centre estimated that Russian artillery attacks are responsible for some 70 per cent of Ukrainian casualties.
Their research revealed that Russias rate of artillery fire has averaged roughly 10,000 rounds per day since the early months of the war which saw peaks as high as 36,000 rounds per day.
By contrast, Ukrainian fire rarely exceeded 6,000 and dropped below 1,800 rounds per day by early 2024.
The RUSI report also surmised that sustaining such an outsized artillery and ammunition advantage is central to Russias path to victory, concluding that it is essential for Western countries to provide Ukraine with considerably more ammunition to prevent Russias advance.
As of August 2024, the Russian theory of victory does not centre on major breakthroughs, but rather on the destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) as a force capable of defending the breadth (of the frontline), the RUSI report read.
The Russian leadership likely believes it can kill its way out of the war, and artillery will be key to doing that.
So long as Russia maintains a substantial advantage in artillery systems, it can use tactics that will, over time, deplete the AFU of reserves – a critical vulnerability for Ukraine.
This photograph taken in Borodyanka, Kyiv region, on November 7, 2024, shows destroyed residential buildings, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine
An aerial view shows the destroyed city of Vovchansk in the Kharkiv Region near the border with Russia
A Ukrainian wounded serviceman who was brought back from positions is being treated by Ukrainian military doctors is prepared to be transported to a hospital, at a stabilisation point of the 33rd Mechanised Brigade, near the Kurakhove towns frontline
Security camera footage out of the central-eastern city of Dnipro showed several projectiles streaking in and detonating after Russia launched a new hypersonic missile yesterday
A grab taken from handout footage released by Russias Defence Ministry on March 1 purports to show the test firing of an ICBM belonging to the countrys nuclear deterrence forces
Though satellite imagery and intelligence reports allow researchers and analysts to assess the Russian advance with relative accuracy, battlefield reports from both sides consistently contradict one another.
Last week, Russias Defence Ministry reported the capture by its forces of another village, Kopanky, in Kharkiv region, another focus of Russian military activity north of the main theatre of fighting in Donetsk region.
But Ukraines third separate assault brigade said it had cleared the village of Russian soldiers in a post on Telegram on Monday.
Ukrainian media quoted Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesperson for the Khortytsya group of troops, as saying Kyivs forces had repelled a Russian advance on the logistical centre of Kupiansk, also in Kharkiv region.
It was the second time in November that the Ukrainian military reported rebuffing an attack on Kupiansk, even after Russian commanders said they had invaded the city two weeks ago.
Putin has repeatedly said that Russian forces are advancing much more effectively now than earlier in the war and insisted that Russia will achieve all its aims in Ukraine without specifying exactly what those are.
Militarily, the goals of the so-called special military operation are generally seen as securing the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions and ousting Ukrainian troops from Kursk.
Russia controls 18% of Ukraine including all of Crimea and almost all of the Luhansk region.
However, Ukraine has managed to retain roughly 30-35% of the Donetsk region, as well as the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions in the south.
A source on Ukraines General Staff last weekend said that Ukraine now held around 800 of the 1,376 square kilometres of Kursk that they held initially and would hold it for as long as is militarily appropriate.
Putin is also adamant that Ukraine must remain a neutral state that is not part of NATO. He claims that Western powers - particularly the US and UK - are fighting a war with Russia through Ukraine which he sees as a vassal state.
A member of Ukraines 72nd Brigade Anti-air unit fires at a Russian Zala reconnaissance drone over head on February 23, 2024 near Marinka, Ukraine
A view of destruction of the city of besieged Mariupol in southeastern Ukraine
Ukrainian servicemen operate a Soviet-made T-72 tank in the Sumy region near the border with Russia
Injured Ukrainian soldiers are transferred on stretchers from ambulances to a military evacuation train to transport Ukrainian servicemen wounded in frontline areas to hospitals, in an undisclosed location
A mortar platoon soldier with an 82mm mortar performs a combat mission as Ukrainian soldiers hold their positions in bitter conditions
Neither Russia nor Ukraine publishes accurate data on their losses, though Western intelligence estimates casualties to number hundreds of thousands killed or injured, while swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine have turned into wastelands.
Ukraine has been struggling with deepening manpower shortages and is embroiled in an unpopular debate about how to bolster the militarys ranks amid outrage over brutal incidents of civilians being press-ganged on the streets of Kyiv and other cities.
Secretary of Ukraines National Security Council Oleksandr Lytvynenko told Parliament in late October that the army planned to recruit another 160,000 people in the coming months.
But Ukrainian military officials acknowledge the situation in the east is the worst now that it has been all year.
In an interview with former Ukrainian MP Borislav Bereza in October, Col-Gen Dmytro Marchenko said: I wont be revealing a military secret if I say that our front has crumbled.
He went on to cast doubt on Volodymyr Zelenskys victory plan for being too reliant on political, economic and military support from Western allies.
This plan lacks any points addressing Ukraine or our needs, Gen Marchenko added.
Zelensky has blamed the difficulties of his armed forces on several factors, including delays of up to a year in equipping brigades, partly because of the long time the US Congress took to sign off on a major Ukraine assistance package.